Why do we believe in luck?

We believe in luck because our brains look for patterns and causes even in things that happen by chance. We also remember the times something ‘worked’ better than the times it didn’t, feeding the impression that there’s more to it than coincidence.

Pattern seekers

Spotting patterns was very useful for survival: linking a noise to danger, or a cloud to rain. The trouble is that this detector kicks in with random events too. If you win two games in a row wearing the same T-shirt, your brain starts to suspect the T-shirt has something to do with it.

Selective memory

Psychologists call it confirmation bias: we pay attention to what confirms what we already believe. The afternoons when the lucky chair didn’t work are forgotten; the great comeback is remembered for years.

The illusion of control

Some people throw the dice harder when they want a high number, or prefer to cut the deck themselves. This is the illusion of control: feeling that we can influence something that is purely down to chance. We discuss it in the gambler’s fallacy.

Is it bad to believe in luck?

At the card table, hardly ever: little rituals are part of the folklore of card games and add to the fun. The problem arises when belief in luck is used to justify betting money. That’s why there’s no betting at Lascuarenta, as we explain in why we’re not a casino. And if you’d like to explore further, read do lucky streaks exist?