The probability of being dealt a same-suit rey (king) and caballo (knight)

The probability of being dealt at least one same-suit pair of rey (king) and caballo (knight) in a 4-card hand is 2,806 out of 91,390, or 3.07%. With 3 cards, it drops to 1.54%; with 6, as in Guiñote (Guinote), it rises to around 7.6%.

Why it matters

A king and knight of the same suit form the pair that lets you make a declaration: twenty points for a non-trump suit, forty for the trump suit. Knowing how rarely they come your way helps you appreciate their value.

How to work it out (nothing scary!)

With 4 cards, there are 91,390 possible hands. For one particular suit, we fix the king and knight, and the other two cards can be any of the remaining 38: 703 combinations. Across four suits, that makes 2,812, but this counts the 6 hands containing two pairs twice. Subtract those and we get 2,806.

At a glance

• 3 cards: 1.54%
• 4 cards: 3.07%
• 6 cards: 7.59%
• 8 cards: 13.9%
• 10 cards (Tute a cuatro (four-player Tute)): 21.7%

What about forty points?

For one particular suit (trumps), the probability with 6 cards is 1.9%. Also, in Guiñote, cards are drawn from the stock as play progresses, so the chance to make a declaration remains open throughout the hand. We cover this in the probability of declaring twenty and the origins of declaring forty.