Probability and chance
The probability of declaring twenty
To declare twenty, you need the rey (king) and caballo (knight) of the same non-trump suit. The probability of being dealt at least one king-and-knight pair in any suit is 7.6% with the 6 starting cards in Guiñote (a Spanish trick-taking game) and almost 22% with the 10 cards in four-player Tute (a Spanish trick-taking game). These figures also include pairs in the trump suit, not just those that let you declare twenty.
Why does the starting hand not tell the whole story?
In Guiñote, you draw cards from the stock, so you can complete the pair later on. That means the actual probability of making a declaration during the hand is considerably higher than the initial 7.6%.
Quick guide (at least one king-and-knight pair)
- 6 cards: 7.6%
- 8 cards: 13.9%
- 10 cards: 21.7%
Bear in mind that these numbers also include the trump suit, which lets you declare forty. If you only count declarations of twenty, the figure is a little lower.
A useful tip
If you have the king of a suit and the knight has not appeared yet, hang on to it: the knight might turn up. But do not get too fixated on it; sometimes it is better to use the king to win an important trick. You can find the calculations explained in the probability of being dealt the king and knight of the same suit, and the history in declaring forty.
Frequently asked questions
What do you need to declare twenty?
The rey (king) and caballo (knight) of the same non-trump suit.
Is it easier to make a declaration in Tute or Guiñote?
In four-player Tute, you receive more cards at once, so you are more likely to have a pair in your starting hand.