Probability and chance
What is the hardest hand to get?








The hardest hand to get depends on the game, though generally, the more specific it is, the less likely it becomes. Being dealt all four ases (aces) when receiving 4 cards from a 40-card deck happens roughly once in every 91,390 deals. In Chinchón (Spanish rummy), being dealt seven consecutive cards of the same suit is even rarer.
Four ases in four cards
There are 91,390 different ways to take 4 cards from a 40-card deck, and only one of them gives you all four ases. With more cards in your hand, your chances improve considerably. We explain this in the probability of being dealt all four ases.
Chinchón straight from the deal
In Chinchón, each player is dealt seven cards. Having all seven form a run of the same suit without drawing a single card is incredibly rare: there are few possible runs and millions of different hands. That is why players celebrate so much when they go out with a chinchón.
Las cuarenta (the forty-point declaration) from the deal
Being dealt the rey (king) and caballo (knight) of trumps is much more common than you might think, especially with six or eight cards in your hand. The difficult part is not having them, but getting the chance to declare them. If that sounds baffling, take a look at what a declaration is.
What about the perfect hand?
A hand that always wins, no matter what, exists in some games, but it is so unlikely that many seasoned players never see one. We discuss this in can a perfect game exist?. To get to grips with the numbers without feeling overwhelmed, start with probability for beginners.
Frequently asked questions
How many 4-card hands are possible with a Spanish deck?
With 40 cards, there are 91,390 different combinations of 4 cards.
Is a chinchón straight from the deal very rare?
Yes, it is one of the least likely hands in the game.